Risk of economic slowdown reinforces need for a sustainable state budget

By: Richard S. Davis
12:00 am
April 6, 2012

The Wall Street Journal headline sounds the alarm: Job Growth Loses Steam

The government’s main snapshot of the labor market showed employers added 120,000 jobs in March, half the upwardly revised number of the month before. That snapped a three-month streak of 200,000-plus jobs growth, the economy’s best showing since 2006. There were bright spots: Wages inched up and governments cut just 1,000 jobs, suggesting the drag from big public-sector cutbacks is easing.

But mostly, the picture was disappointing …

As all of the budget proposals introduced in Olympia this year leave scant reserves and possibly large 2013-15 shortfalls, any downturn could upset the precarious balance.

On the left, economist and Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich, who characteristically blames income inequality and calls for a more muscular federal response, sees problems.

It’s way too early to conclude the jobs recovery is stalling, but there’s reason for concern.

Remember: Consumer spending is 70 percent of the economy. Employers won’t hire without enough sales to justify the additional hires. It’s up to consumers to make it worth their while.

…The reason consumers aren’t spending more is they don’t have the money.

On the right, Jennifer Rubin also sees trouble ahead.

 … “stall” or “fizzle” would be how critics of the White House may describe what seems to be happening to the “recovery.” We have an all-time high of nearly 88 million Americans outof the workforce. Had the labor-participation rate returned to pre-recession levels the unemployment rate would be at 10.5 percent.

Economist Mark Perry looks at the numbers and finds good news in a manufacturing renaissance.

And, for another piece of good news, metro Seattle enjoyed the nation’s largest salary growth.

Pockets of strength in a softening economy, however, are not enough to justify bet-on-the-come budgeting.

Categories: Budget , Categories , Economy.