The economic and revenue forecast council’s latest collections report is available here. Here’s the crux:

Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the August 11 – September 10, 2011 collection period were $9.5 million (0.9%) below the June forecast. Cumulatively, collections are $40.2 million (1.2%) below the forecast. Even though revenues have so far been close to the forecast, the outlook for future revenue growth has deteriorated considerably since June.

And this.

According to our preliminary September forecast, the job growth forecast for 2011 is unchanged at 1.2% but we now expect 1.6% growth in 2012 and 2.3% in 2013 compared to the 2.2% per year expected in the June forecast. Our personal income growth forecast is now 4.9%, 3.2%, and 4.6% in 2011, 2012, and 2013 compared to 5.1%, 4.4%, and 5.3% earlier. We do not expect to see a significant upturn in housing construction until the first quarter of 2013 which is two quarters later than assumed in June. The final September forecast will be released later this week.

That’s called telegraphing your punch.