November 16, 2021
The most recent monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), which was issued yesterday afternoon, once again shows overall revenues above forecast. This is getting to be boring
For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between October 11 and November 10, which generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of September.
For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between October 1 and October 31.
The total amount received was $2,303.1 million, $139.6 million (6.5%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on September 24th.
Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupations taxes) were $86.8 million (4.9%) above the amount forecasted. Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:
Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $53.7 million (13.3%). Within this grouping, real estate excise tax (REET) exceeded forecast by $43.4 million. ERFC staff note:
Sales of large commercial property (property valued at $10 million or more) decreased to a still strong $1.28 billion from last month’s revised total of $3.27 billion while seasonally adjusted activity excluding large sales increased to a record high for that category.
Here is a chart showing the value of transactions subject to REET since 2002:
The collections report is available here.
The EFRC will meet on November 19 to update the revenue forecast it adopted on September 24. I expect an upward revision. Over the last two months, collections have exceeded forecast by a total of $269.2 million (7.3%). Gov. Inslee will use the revised forecast to prepare his supplemental budget recommendation for the upcoming legislative session.Categories: Budget , Economy.