Earlier I wrote about the new budget outlook. The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council estimates that maintenance level spending for 2015-17 will increase by $368 million. That is partially driven by caseload and enrollment changes, and it's based on new estimates that the Caseload Forecast Council approved last week.

Some highlights from the caseload forecast:

K-12 Basic Education. Enrollment is expected to increase by 11,874 FTE (1.2 percent) in school year (SY) 2015-16 and by 48,903 FTE (4.8 percent) in SY 2016-17. About 80 percent of the increase in 2016-17 is "directly attributable to implementation of full day Kindergarten." (Which is part of complying with the McCleary decision.) The forecast notes that the Supreme Court's final decision on charter schools could impact the forecast, as 1,172 students are estimated to be enrolled in charters in SY 2015-16 and 2,546 in SY 2016-17.

Medical Assistance (Medicaid) for Adult Caretakers and Children. In fiscal year (FY) 2014, caseloads increased by 26,581 (3.1 percent). In FY 2015, they increased by 59,991 (6.7 percent), to total 950,662. They are expected to increase by 4.6 percent in 2016 and by 2.4 percent in 2017.

The impact of the ACA’s “welcome mat” or “woodwork effect” is evident in the doubling of caseload growth from FY2014 to FY2015. Actual caseload increases during the first ACA open enrollment period were very close to the original projections (within 0.1 percent), and an ACA “welcome mat echo effect” occurred during the second open enrollment period (November 2014 through February 2015). Growth is projected to continue at a higher rate than the long-term historical rate due to higher renewal rates under the streamlined eligibility provisions of the ACA, tapering off towards the end of the biennium as a new steady state is reached.

(These Medicaid clients are funded at the normal federal match rate of 50 percent.)

Medical Assistance for Medicaid Expansion New Eligibles. These are the Medicaid enrollees who are funded at a higher federal match rate under the Affordable Care Act. In 2015, enrollment was 503,849. Caseloads are expected to increase by 12.5 percent in 2016 and by 2.7 percent in 2017. "For the 2015-17 Biennium, caseload growth is projected to slow down significantly, as both entry and exit rates appear to be stabilizing."