Wednesday’s monthly report from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) on general fund revenue collections brought more good news.

For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between August 11 and September 10, which generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of July.

For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between August 1 and August 31.

The total amount received was $1,743.7 million. This was $319.9 million (22.5%) more than the amount that had been forecasted. Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $249.3 million (19.4%). Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $70.9 million (54.0%). Within the latter grouping, the Real Estate Excise tax exceeded forecast by $42.9 million (77.8%).

For the last three months combined, collections have exceeded forecast by $962.8 million (20.5%).

ERFC notes:

[Most] of the unexpected strength [in Revenue Act sources] continues to be in retail trade. Retail trade payments were up 8.8% year over year while non-retail trade payments were down 4.0% year over year. The July expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program, however, which paid $600 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits, is likely to lower retail trade activity in next month’s collections. Cumulative Revenue Act collections are now $845.5 million (22.6%) higher than forecasted in June.

Here is a chart of seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:

ERFC will update its forecast of state revenues at its meeting on September 23rd. Given the strong performance relative to the forecast over the last three months, a substantial increase is certainly in order. The tricky issue for forecasters is the expiration of the $600 per week federal supplement to unemployment insurance. Because of this, the next three months ought not to be quite as strong as the last three were.

The full Economic and Revenue Update is available here.