Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued its monthly update on revenue collections and the economy today, and while the headline number looks very good, revenue for the month $157.7 million higher than had been forecast, the underlying story was not positive. The good headline number was entirely due to the tax amnesty program, which ended April 30. Quoting from the EFRC update:

Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenues for the April 11 – May 10, 2011 collection period were $157.7 million (13.3%) higher than our March forecast. The positive variance, however, was due entirely to larger-than-anticipated revenue from the recently concluded amnesty program for past due taxes as well as other one-time special payments. Without the extra $184 million from these sources, receipts would have come in $26.6 million (2.2%) below the March forecast. . . .

Adjusted for the extra revenue from the amnesty program and other one-time payments and refunds, the cumulative variance [over the two months since the last forecast] is negative $32.5 million (1.6%).

The next report on collections is due on June 11 and will cover payments received for the May 11 – June 10 collections period, primarily reflecting taxes on April activity. I expect that the April spike in gasoline prices  will result in another report of collections below forecast, as higher expenditures on gasoline crowd out consumer purchases of goods and services subject to the sales tax.

There has been speculation that some legislators want to hold off adoption of a budget until June, after the next revision to the revenue forecast, in the hope that an improving economy will provide more money. My advice: “Get out of Olympia while the getting is good.”