The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued last Friday.

This report includes payments from monthly, quarterly and annual filers.

In the case of monthly filers, the report covers payments received between April 11 and May 10 for the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), and it covers payments received between April 1 and April 30 for liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources.

The total amount received this month was $2,461.2 million, $173.2 million (7.6%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on February 16th.

Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupation taxes) exceeded forecast by $131.0 million (7.1%). ERFC staff note:

Cumulatively, Revenue Act collections are now $350.6 million (7.3%) higher than forecasted [in February]. Much of the large cumulative variance is due to the sharp increase in inflation that began in February, which was unforeseen by the forecast. A historically high accumulation of savings and healthy state personal income growth allowed consumers and businesses on average to avoid sharp reductions to their real spending in February and March. As a result, the growth in nominal taxable activity reflects the increased prices of the items purchased more than increases in real purchases.

Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:

Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $43.0 million (9.6%). Real estate excise tax (REET), above forecast by $46.0 million (39.0%), accounts for all of the positive variance in this grouping.

Over the three months since the February forecast update, collections have exceeded this revised forecast by a total of $428.5 million (7.5%).

The collections report is available here.