As Kriss noted on Wednesday, the Feb. 2024 forecast of revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) was increased by $337 million over the outlook period (this biennium and next). That figure is compared to the Nov. 2023 revenue forecast, on which the governor based his 2024 supplemental operating budget proposal.

Compared to the March 2023 forecast, on which the enacted budget was based, the forecast increased by $3.270 billion over the outlook period (including 2021–23, which hadn’t yet closed in March 2023). Excluding legislative revenue changes made during the session last year, the Legislature has $3.150 billion more to work with than they expected when the 2023 session ended.

On the other side of the ledger, costs have increased since last session. The governor’s proposal estimated that the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for enrollment and inflation) would increase by $870.4 million in 2023–25 and $1.308 billion in 2025–27. Those figures were based on the November caseload forecast.

The Caseload Forecast Council adopted the Feb. 2024 caseload forecast today. Many caseloads, including public schools, are practically unchanged from November. However, several caseloads have increased since November, including higher education and Medicaid. It’s not clear yet how the caseload forecast will affect maintenance level spending.

Now that the revenue and caseload forecasts are complete, the various budget proposals will be made public over the next few days:

• The Senate capital budget proposal was released yesterday and heard yesterday in Ways & Means. It is scheduled for executive session Monday at 4 pm.
• According to Sen. Robinson at the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council meeting on Wednesday, the Senate operating budget proposal will be made public “Sunday around four o’clock-ish.” (That said, a budget rollout news conference is scheduled for Monday at 9:30 am, so the numbers might not be ready until then.) The operating proposal is scheduled to be heard by Ways & Means Monday at 4 pm and it is scheduled for executive session Wednesday at 3 pm.
• The House operating, capital, and transportation budget proposals will be made public Monday at noon.
• The House operating budget is scheduled to be heard Monday at 4 pm and is scheduled for executive session Wednesday at 4 pm.
• The House transportation budget is scheduled to be heard Monday at 4 pm and is scheduled for executive session Wednesday at 4 pm.
• The House capital budget is scheduled to be heard Tuesday at 8 am and is scheduled for executive session next Friday at 8 am.
• The Senate transportation budget will be made public Tuesday at 10 am and is scheduled to be heard Wednesday at 3 pm. It is scheduled for executive session next Friday at 1:30 pm.