The June Economic & Revenue Update issue today by the Forecast Council (available here) shows a shortfall in collections that almost completely exhausts the projected 2009-11 ending balance in the near general fund. Here are the key paragraphs on revenue collections from the update:

Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenues for the May 11 – June 10, 2011 collection period came in $69.7 million (4.0%) lower than our March forecast due to the unexpectedly large slowdown in April economic activity. During the period there was a $40 million payment for taxes assessed on activity from prior periods. Without this payment, receipts would have come in $109.7 million (6.4%) below the March forecast.

Revenue Act receipts were $45.9 million (-5.1%) below the forecast and other receipts came in $23.7 million (2.9%) below the forecast due mainly to shortfalls in real estate excise, cigarette and property taxes.

Cumulatively, major GF-S revenues are $93.1 million (2.5%) above the March forecast due to last month’s [$200 million] receipts from the amnesty program for past due taxes as well as this month’s large assessment payment. Adjusted for the extra revenue from the amnesty program and other one-time payments and refunds, the cumulative variance is negative $142.2 million (-3.8%).

The budget recently passed by the legislature projects a $111 million ending balance for the near general fund (Balance Sheet). The calculation of this ending balance, however, assumes the $200 million booked last month from the amnesty program. Subtracting this $200 million from the $93 million by which collections have exceeded the March forecast leaves a shortfall of $107 million, which eliminates all but $4 million the projected ending balance.

The Economic and Revenue Council will meet on Thursday to adopt new forecasts of revenue for the 2009-11 and 2011-13 biennia.