The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued on Tuesday.

This report covers payments received between May 11 and June 10 for the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), and it covers payments received between May 1 and May 31 for liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources.

The total amount received this month was $3,708.3 million, $161.5 million (4.6%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on February 16th.

Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupation taxes) exceeded forecast by $89.4 million (5.4%). These taxes generally reflect economic activity in the month of April. Year-over-year, Revenue Act tax collections increased by 4.2%. This is less than the 6.3% increase in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s price index for personal consumption expenditures from April 2021 to April 2022.

Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:

Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $73.3 million (3.8%). Property tax exceeded forecast by $40.6 million (2.4%), while real estate excise tax exceeded forecast by $34.2 million (25.4%). Year-over-year, non-Revenue Act tax collections increased by 3.4%.

Over the four months since the February forecast update, collections have exceeded that revised forecast by a total of $589.9 million (6.4%). Because of this positive variance, we expect ERFC to approve a significant upward revision to the forecast at its meeting next Wednesday (June 22). The interesting question is whether the increase in forecasted revenue will be more than offset by an increase in forecasted inflation.

The collections report is available here.