As Kriss wrote yesterday, a new revenue forecast has been approved. This forecast will inform the 2016 supplemental budget. On a near general fund-state plus opportunity pathways (NGFS+) basis, estimated revenues for the current biennium are $37.837 billion — a decrease of $78.2 million from the Nov. 2015 forecast (see page 28 here).

The Office of Financial Management (OFM) notes, "Today’s forecast marks the first time in two years the council has lowered its projection for the current biennium."

But it's important to note that costs have also decreased, as OFM explains:

The revenue forecast is offset somewhat by new projections approved last week by the state’s Caseload Forecast Council, which indicate the state will have fewer people on welfare and in nursing homes. The state’s medical assistance costs are also lower than previously projected. All told, the new caseload forecast and other adjustments reduce the state’s projected costs for the 2015–17 biennium by about $62 million.

The net result of the forecasts, then, is that budget writers have about $16 million less to work with than they had expected.

One interesting point from last week's caseload forecast is that they are increasing their estimates for Medical Assistance for those newly eligible under the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion. In the Nov. 2015 forecast, caseloads of those newly eligible were expected to increase by 12.5 percent in 2016 and by 2.7 percent in 2017. The Caseload Forecast Council said then, "For the 2015-17 Biennium, caseload growth is projected to slow down significantly, as both entry and exit rates appear to be stabilizing."

Now, the Council notes that enrollments

significantly picked up starting from November 2015 coinciding with current open enrollment period (November 2015 through January 2016). Therefore, the entries are adjusted upward to reflect current and future open enrollment periods accordingly based on year 2014 data.

It estimates now that newly eligible caseloads will increase by 17.1 percent in 2016 and by 4.8 percent in 2017.