As we wrote in College Affordability, Two Ways, the Senate 2015-17 operating budget proposal assumes enactment of ESSB 5954, the College Affordability Program. Under this program, resident undergraduate tuition would be reduced, and the bill explicitly states (see section 2) that the Legislature “shall appropriate” to the institutions in 2015-17 and beyond amounts that are “at least equal to the total state funds appropriated in the 2013-15 biennium and the net revenue loss from resident undergraduate tuition operating fees.” In other words, although the institutions would receive less revenue from tuition under the proposal, the state would make up the difference via higher appropriations.

So does the Senate’s operating budget proposal actually do that? Yes. According to the Ways and Means (SW&M) committee, the proposal that was passed by SW&M on May 28 does indeed fully fund the tuition reduction. They may have to adjust the appropriations in future supplementals to take into account actual enrollment numbers, but given what they know now, the numbers pencil out.

This isn’t immediately obvious from the numbers in the May 28 budget. The table below shows the College Affordability Program spending impacts on each institution and the Washington Student Achievement Council (WSAC). In the April 6 version of the Senate budget, appropriations to the WSAC for the state need grant and college bound scholarship were reduced by $74.7 million. This decrease reflected the tuition reductions — if tuition is not as high, students won’t need as much financial aid.

Funding for the WSAC related to the College Affordability Program is not reduced in the Senate’s May 28 proposal. Financial aid is still reduced, but instead of being accounted for in the WSAC, the reductions are spread out over the various institutions (totaling $96.0 million). That is why tuition and NGFS+ (state appropriations) do not net to zero for the institutions in the 5/28 version.

The financial aid reduction is $74.7 million in the 4/6 version and $96.0 million in the 5/28 version because the 5/28 version also specifies that tuition will be lower than in the 4/6 version. (A lot of moving parts here.)

The blog of UW’s Office of Planning and Budgeting noted on May 29 that, because of the College Affordability Program, “UW anticipates a shortfall of $3.7 million over the biennium.” Apparently this is due to a difference in the assumptions that UW and the Senate make about enrollment. (And it would likely be sorted out in a supplemental, as needed.)