At its quarterly meeting today, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecast of state revenues. This is the second official forecast to incorporate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This second forecast adds back about half of the revenues lost in the first one, which was issued in June.

In recent years, budget reports from legislative fiscal committees have typically rolled up three accounts: the general fund–state, the education legacy trust account and the Washington opportunity pathways account. Budgeteers refer to the roll-up as “funds subject to the outlook” (NGFO). Under the four-year balanced budget requirement, positive ending balances are required for both the current and the following bienniums. Beginning July 1, the balanced budget requirement extends to a fourth account, the workforce education investment account (WEIA).

For the NGFO as now defined, the new forecast for the 2019–21 biennium is $50,360.8 million; this is $2,238.6 million more than had been estimated in June, when the ERFC last met. The forecast for the 2021–23 biennium increased by $2,419.3 million, to $54,337.8 million. From 2019–21 to 2021–23, the forecasted NGFO growth rate is 7.9 percent.

As always, the ERFC also adopted optimistic and pessimistic alternative forecasts for the general fund–state. Under the optimistic scenario, revenue exceeds the baseline forecast by $1,581 million in 2019–21 and by $4,191 million during 2021–23. Under the pessimistic scenario, revenue falls short of the baseline forecast by $1,988 million during 2019–21 and by $5,277 million during 2021–23. The ERFC assigns a 25 percent probability to the optimistic scenario and a 25 percent probability to the pessimistic scenario.
The handout from the meeting is here; TVW video of the meeting is here.