Keeping the best teachers in the classroom when it's necessary to downsize
That’s my subject in today’s Everett Herald column. Right now, layoffs are handled by seniority — last hired, first fired, with no regard for teacher performance. A pair of bills (HB 1609 and SB 5399) would create a performance-based system for staff reductions. The legislation calls for making layoff decisions based on teachers’ average evaluation […]
March 21 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
More thoughts on the revenue forecast and budget shortfall
Kriss posted the WRC policy brief on the March revenue forecast. Today, Crosscut ran my article on the forecast and budget gap. A couple of excerpts: Lawmakers facing a multi-billion dollar shortfall will want to spend everything Raha has identified for them. They shouldn’t. Remember, he also said downside risks are twice as high as […]
March 21 , 2011 - Emily Makings
The Transportation Budget and the Gas Tax
Today the House released its 2011-13 transportation budget proposal. It would appropriate $8.924 billion for transportation operations and capital needs. That’s $1.8 million more than the governor proposed spending. Of note, from the summary: Transportation revenue sources have continued to grow more slowly than expected, with projected revenues for the 2011-13 biennium $100 million less […]
March 15 , 2011 - Emily Makings
Budget Trickery Ahead?
As Kriss said, Thursday’s revenue forecast will likely bring yet another downward revision of revenues. Worries about the magnitude of the drop have led to discussion of possibly using a number of budget tricks that would push the problem forward. See the Times, the Olympian, and Washington State Wire. I think Erik Smith is a […]
March 14 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Perspectives on public pension problems…
Over the last week, we’ve seen some conflicting reports on the status of state and local plans nationally. A McClatchy story carried in several local papers suggested that the widely cited problems have been overblown. Quick dissent followed, but let’s allow the no-problem voices to go first. From McClatchy: There’s simply no evidence that state […]
March 13 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
Consumer confidence falls sharply
Kriss noted that state revenue collections were falling below projections, signaling a possible large downward revision in the forecast that will be released March 17. The predictive art faces increasing challenges in a dynamic and changing global economy, as discussed here and here. Now factor in another sign of tough times ahead. U.S. consumer sentiment […]
March 11 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
March Economic and Revenue Update
The state’s monthly economic and revenue update (commonly called the collections report) is out today and can be downloaded here. Adjusting for the shift of certain taxpayers from quarterly to monthly reporting frequency, revenue for the February 11 to March 10 reporting month was $65 million below forecast. Adjusted revenue for the previous month was […]
March 09 , 2011 - Richard S. Davis
No pot of gold likely in St. Patrick's Day state revenue forecast ….
That’s the theme of my column today. Given the increasing difficulty of forecasting state revenues and the significant downside risks, I suggest legislators underspend the revenue forecast this year. And, they should resist the temptation to kick the can forward with one-time gimmics. That these ideas continue to surface signals a lack of legislative seriousness, […]
March 04 , 2011 - Emily Makings
Understating Public Pension Shortfalls
The Washington Post reports that while official figures put state and local public pension shortfalls at $344 billion, some economists estimate the underfunding is more in the ballpark of $1.9 trillion. The discrepancy occurs because of what the article calls the "government method of accounting." Most states, including Washington, use the actuarial method of accounting in […]
March 03 , 2011 - Emily Makings
"The young versus the old"
As I noted yesterday, Bill Gates gave a talk at the TED conference on state budgets. Video of the talk is not yet available, but the Wall Street Journal has reported on it, here and here. Mr. Gates said states are stuck in a system that pays out vast amounts for early retirement, health care […]