OFM Budget Outlook for 2013-15 and 2015-17
The state Office of Financial Management (OFM) has prepared a new “Four-Year Outlook” projecting the paths of state revenue and spending out through the end of the 2015-17 biennium assuming that the policies embedded in the 2012 supplemental state budget are maintained. Under this assumption, OFM projects NGFS+ spending (i.e. spending from the general fund–state, […]
July 19 , 2012 - Emily Makings
More from the State Budget Crisis Task Force Report
On Tuesday, Dick linked to the State Budget Crisis Task Force report. As he noted, the report shows how states face structural budget problems that were only exacerbated by the recession. The report’s “major threats to fiscal sustainability” include Medicaid, underfunded pension promises, and state budget practices — topics that we’ve written about often. Although […]
July 16 , 2012 - Richard S. Davis
Governors, economists tally the costs of Medicaid expansion under ACA
The New York Times reports today that the nation’s governors, meeting in Williamsburg, VA, are taking a cautious approach to the Medicaid expansion baked into the Affordable Care Act, but rendered voluntary by the U.S. Supreme Court. The initial reaction to the court’s ruling split along party lines. More than half a dozen Republican governors […]
July 11 , 2012 - Kriss Sjoblom
Monthly state revenue collections beat forecast by $66.5 million
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council’s monthly Economic & Revenue Update is out today, and the results were quite good for a change. For the June 11 to July 10 month, general fund–state revenue collections were $66.5 million greater than the forecast, which was revised just 3 weeks ago. The economic outlook remains clouded, however, […]
July 02 , 2012 - Richard S. Davis
Manufacturing down, raising recession risk
The Institute for Supply Management today reports a contaction in manufacturing activity. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009; however, the overall economy grew for the 37th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, […]
June 28 , 2012 - Emily Makings
Some Thoughts on the Health Care Reform Ruling
As everyone is well aware of by now, the Supreme Court ruled this morning on the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The Court upheld the law, including the individual mandate–but under the taxing power, not the Commerce Clause. Additionally, the Court decided that states are not required to take part in […]
June 27 , 2012 - Richard S. Davis
The "fiscal cliff" threatens state budgets
In my column today I look at threats to the September revenue forecast, with a particular focus on the fiscal cliff. As we noted in our earlier post, the forecast council acknowledges a 40 percent probability that state revenues will come in substantially below the baseline projection (that’s the pessimistic forecast). The usual risks are […]
June 20 , 2012 - Richard S. Davis
Official June revenue forecast little changed, risk factors remain high
The economic and revenue forecast council is meeting now to receive the official revenue forecast from interim director Steve Lerch. Here are the numbers: Changes to the economic forecast, which were slight, have resulted in a $16.1 million reduction to the General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the current biennium and $132.9 million for the […]
June 13 , 2012 - Richard S. Davis
Candidates here will have to address Wisconsin recall results, collective bargaining
Both major party candidates in this year’s election have said they don’t expect it to be Wisconsin redux. Collective bargaining for public employee unions and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker didn’t figure at all in yesterday’s debate in Spokane, sponsored by the Association of Washington Business and Greater Spokane, Inc. In my column this morning, I […]
June 11 , 2012 - Kriss Sjoblom
May 11 to June 10 state revenue collections were $15.1 million greater than forecasted
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council’s monthly Economic & Revenue Update is out today. For the May 11 to June 10 month, “headline” general fund–state revenue collections were $15.1 million greater than the forecast. However, excluding special factors–$16.3 million in unanticipated refunds and a $31.4 million one-time transfer to the general fund–collections were $1.1 million […]