September Revenue Forecast: Down $1.4 Billion
The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council is meeting right now. The baseline forecast for the general fund-state account is down $1.413 billion from the June forecast. An alternate baseline, which assumes slower growth in national GDP in 2013, is down $1.429 billion from the June forecast. Here is a link to the press release.
September 04 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Raha presages major downward adjustment to state revenue forecast
State economist Arun Raha presented the preliminary September economic forecast for the state at a meeting of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council in Olympia last Friday (September 2). Raha indicated that a major downward adjustment to the forecast of state revenue for the 2011-13 biennium is forthcoming. Events since the last forecast in June […]
August 11 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Pessimistic State Economic & Revenue Update
Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) staff today released the monthly Economic and Revenue Update for August. Here are the document's summary bullet points: The national economic outlook has weakened significantly since our last forecast. There is now an even greater chance of slipping back into recession. Washington’s economic outlook has also dimmed as consumer […]
August 09 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Initiative 1183 Would Produce Revenue Gains for State and Local Governments
The Research Council has published a Special Report on I-1183. Briefly: Initiative 1183 would end the state monopoly over the liquor sales and distribution system in Washington. Our analysis shows that state and local governments would gain $443 million in additional revenue over six years under the initiative, compared to the current state monopoly baseline. […]
July 20 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
ESD Estimates Washington Gained 3,600 Jobs in June, Unemployment Rate Up 0.1 to 9.2 Percent
The state Employment Security Department today issued its monthly estimates of employment and the unemployment rate. The estimated unemployment rate increased to 9.2 percent in June from 9.1 percent in May. Seasonally adjusted, the total number of non-farm jobs increased by 3,600, to 2,827,700 in June from 2,824,100 in May. The state has added 59,200 […]
July 11 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Disappointing July Revenue Collections Report
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (EFRC) issued its monthly Economic and Revenue Update today. Once again revenue has come in under forecast. For the month, General Fund–State collections were $22.1 million (1.7 percent) less than the amount anticipated under the forecast adopted in June. Of this $22.1 million, $4.1 million was an unanticipated refund. […]
June 13 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
June Revenue Collections Report
The June Economic & Revenue Update issue today by the Forecast Council (available here) shows a shortfall in collections that almost completely exhausts the projected 2009-11 ending balance in the near general fund. Here are the key paragraphs on revenue collections from the update: Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenues for the May 11 – June […]
May 26 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Preliminary June Economic Forecast
Economic and Revenue Forecast Council has posted the preliminary June economic forecast (available here). Under the new forecast, growth rates for Washington employment and personal income are a bit lower than under the forecast ERFC adopted in March, while the new forecast for the unemployment rate is correpondingly higher than the March forecast (see table […]
May 20 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Washington Fares Poorly in New Business Tax Rankings
According to calculations by Ernst & Young LLP, the state and local tax burden faced by businesses siting new facilities or expanding existing facilities in Washington ranks among the highest in the nation. Our Policy Brief on the report is available here. The Ernst & Young report itself is available here.
May 13 , 2011 - Kriss Sjoblom
Update on Higher Education Tuition
Last week, we posted a policy brief comparing the House and Senate budgets’ treatments of higher education. Both budgets propose significant tuition hikes on state-resident undergraduate students, with the increases in the Senate budget somewhat greater than those in the House budget (11–16 percent vs. 11–13 percent). These proposals are now irrelevant, however. Early this […]