The state Employment Security Department today issued its monthly estimates of employment and the unemployment rate. The estimated unemployment rate increased to 9.2 percent in June from 9.1 percent in May. Seasonally adjusted, the total number of non-farm jobs increased by 3,600, to 2,827,700 in June from 2,824,100 in May. The state has added 59,200 jobs since February 2010, the cyclical low point, but will need to add another 146,800 jobs to surpass the peak reached in February 2008. From May to June, it is estimated that the state added 6,600 private sector jobs (net) and lost 3,000 government jobs.

Underscoring the fact that ESD’s monthly releases are estimates, the figure for April to May non-farm employment change was revised to show a 2,500 job gain rather than the 700 job loss that ESD originally released in June. (See Chapter 4 of the March issue of the state Economic and Revenue Forecast for a description of the methodology that the Forecast Council economists use to improve on the ESD estimates.)

As the chart below shows, job growth in the current economic recovery is closely tracking the experience during the last recovery, which began in April 2003. If we continue track this previous recovery, it will not be until April 2013 that the state surpasses the number of jobs it had in February 2008.