Assumptions gap complicates budget negotiations

By: Emily Makings
12:00 am
May 13, 2013

In The News Tribune today, Jordan Schrader writes about how the House has some work to do on its budget even before considering the Senate’s proposal:

As lawmakers debate how much money to spend on schools and state government, the budget proposal by House Democrats represents the high-water mark — one that even they cannot meet. . . .

But Democrats are unlikely to be able to keep that position as lawmakers return to Olympia on Monday for a special session that could last up to 30 days. They acknowledge their budget doesn’t balance after dropping some of the components of a tax proposal to raise $1.3 billion.

“I have to correct my budget,” said Ross Hunter, the House budget chairman from Medina. The more than $180 million drop from abandoned tax proposals means less spending in multiple areas, Hunter said, including for education where he had sought $1.3 billion. “It’s hard to get to that number without that revenue.” . . .

As we wrote in “Assumptions Gap Divides Legislative Budget Proposals,” both the House and Senate budgets rely on a number of assumptions that may not come to pass, including on revenue, savings, fund transfers, and reserves. Our conclusion:

Ultimately, the special session goal must be a sustainable budget that doesn’t rely on one-time transactions, increased business costs, unrealizable assumed savings or drained reserves. Whether legislators end up increasing revenues or cutting more spending, they should focus on avoiding a shakily-balanced budget that will set them up for a tough time if the economy should soften.

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