Friday the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) issued its monthly report on general fund revenue collections.

This report covers payments received between March 11 and April 10 for the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), and it covers payments received between March 1 and March 31 for liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources.
This report includes payments primarily from monthly filers relating to economic activity in the month of February.

The total amount received this month was $1,820.7 million, $4.6 million (0.3%) less than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on March 20th.

For the month, Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupation taxes) fell short of forecast by $20.7 million (1.3%). These taxes generally reflect economic activity in the month of February. Retail sales tax collections were up 1.2% year over year, while B&O tax collections were down 0.4%.

Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:

For the month, Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $15.0 million (7.9%). This positive variance is largely due to property tax, which exceeded forecast by $22.4 million (46.7%). Property tax payments received in March are generally for delinquent taxes. Most state property taxes are received in either May or November.

The chart below compares year-over-year growth rates of general fund-state revenues to year-over-year inflation in the consumer price index.:

In 10 of the last 11 months, year-over-year CPI inflation exceeded the year-over-year increase in GFS revenues. Inflation has trended downward since mid-summer. For the most recent month, revenues decreased year over year, and the gap between inflation and revenue growth was 8.4%, greater than any other month in the last year.

The April collections report is available here.