The state Employment Security Department issued its employment report for September yesterday. The preliminary estimate is that seasonally-adjusted employment in Washington decreased by 2,200 from August to September. The estimate of July to August job growth was revised up to a gain of 5,200 jobs from the gain of  1,600 jobs previously announced.

The preliminary estimate of June’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the state is 5.2 percent. The estimate of August’s unemployment rate is unchanged at 5.3 percent.

The estimated loss of 2,200 jobs in August is not in itself troubling. As I have noted often on this blog, initial estimates of job gains or losses are frequently revised when more complete information is available. (See this post.)

What does give me cause to worry is the fact that construction employment has been flat over the last 9 months, as shown in this chart:

Part of the explanation could be that seasonally-adjusted construction employment was unusually strong during the winter due to unusually good weather. But more is going on than that. Here is a chart showing construction employment separately for the Seattle metro area (King and Snohomish counties) and for the rest of the state:

The big jump construction employment in January outside of the Seattle metro area is consistent with the weather hypothesis. By April, employment outside of Seattle had returned to trend. The big story is in the Seattle metro area. Since April construction there has fallen by 3,000, more than offsetting the 1,800 construction jobs added elsewhere in the state. If this downturn is not reversed, it is likely that the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will need to reduce its forecast of state tax revenues.

The September Employment Report is available here.