Today the Washington State Institute for Public Policy (WSIPP) released a report on tuition growth factors.

As enacted by the Legislature last year, the College Affordability Act reduced higher education tuition for school years 2015-16 and 2016-17. For subsequent years, tuition increases will be limited to "no more than the average annual percentage growth rate in the median hourly wage for Washington for the previous fourteen years . . . ."

The legislation also required WSIPP to study alternative tuition growth factors. The resulting report notes that average growth rate in the median wage over the past 14 years is 2.1 percent (it has ranged from 0.5 percent to 3.5 percent, and was at the lower end of the range the past three years). Thus, tuition is projected to increase by 2.1 percent for the 2017-19 biennium.

The alternative growth factors that WSIPP considers are:

• Average hourly wages
• Median household income
• Median family income
• Per capita income
• Consumer Price Index
• Implicit Price Deflator
• Higher Education Price Index
• Higher Education Cost Adjustment

The 14-year average growth rates of these alternatives range from 2.1 percent to 3.0 percent. The chart below shows the tuition levels that result from using the median hourly wage and each of the alternatives for UW and WSU through SY 2024-2025. (The asterisks indicate current policy, and the tables for the regional institutions and the community and technical colleges are on pages 9 and 10 of the report.)

Meanwhile, the Guaranteed Education Tuition (GET) Committee met in December. They agreed to move forward with planning a more traditional college savings plan, since the prepaid tuition program is currently frozen (the tuition reduction enacted under the College Affordability Program threw a wrench in that program). According to the AP, the GET Committee won't discuss re-opening the prepaid program until after this year's legislative session.

Documents for the December meeting note that the payout value of GET units was frozen at $117.82 "until the time when one year of resident undergraduate tuition and state mandated fees at Washington State's highest priced public university surpasses $11,782." As WSIPP's estimates show, depending on the growth factor used, that may not happen until after 2025.