In my column this morning, I take a look at recent election results and the state revenue collections report to consider the likelihood of voter approval of new taxes to balance the state budget. It’s never risky to bet against tax hikes. Good times or bad, voters are reluctant to part with their money.

Colorado and San Francisco voters turned thumbs down on tax increases for education, public safety and social services. Seattle voters rejected a $60 car tab increase while they approved property tax hikes for a families and education levy.

KING5 reports Gov. Gregoire will release her proposed spending plan next Monday, identifying at the same time her ideas for raising revenues to buy back some of the cuts. (Link and video here.)

Meanwhile, a new KING 5 poll finds state residents are not necessarily excited about raising taxes, despite the threat of serious budget cuts. When asked if the state should raise taxes to reduce the impact of the governor’s proposed cuts, 64 percent said the state should not raise taxes, while 27 percent said they’d support a tax increase.

Tough odds. And as AWB president Don Brunell points out, small businesses in the state are already struggling with high costs. The budget crisis is also an opportunity to make it a little easier to create jobs and investment here.

The point Gov. Gregoire and lawmakers can’t lose sight of is Washington is a high cost state and they need to find ways to lower costs for workers’ comp, unemployment insurance, regulations and permits, stormwater charges and health care–and not just settle for raising taxes and fees.

The conclusion from my column:

Hiking taxes while cutting spending poses a special challenge. There’s no appetite for paying more for less. Legislators will have do two things: identify the tangible benefits gained from the revenue boost and demonstrate that they’ve accomplished substantive, enduring government reform. Before casting an affirmative vote — an unlikely event at best — a skeptical public will want proof.

The official revenue forecast comes out tomorrow. There will be no upside surprise. Special session starts November 28.