The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council today issued the preliminary June economic forecast for the state. The preliminary economic forecast will reviewed at an ERFC meeting on June 6. ERFC staff will then prepare a revenue forecast based on this (possibly revised) economic forecast. The revenue forecast will be reviewed and adopted at an ERFC meeting on June 18. (Times and locations of ERFC meetings are posted here.)

Links to a memo and tables summarizing the new forecast can be found here.

Employment growth is slightly weaker under the new forecast compared to the forecast adopted in March. Under the new forecast there are 5,000 fewer manufacturing jobs in 2017 compared to the old forecast. This includes 2,300 fewer aerospace jobs. The bad news on manufacturing is somewhat offset by an increase in construction: The new forecast has 2,300 more construction jobs in 2017 than the old forecast has. 

The forecast of personal income for the current year has been increased by $2.0 billion (from $323.2 billion to $325.2 billion). For subsequent years, however, forecasted personal income growth rates have been reduced.