Preliminary September Employment Estimates Showing Washington Lost 18,400 Jobs Last Month Are Likely To Be Revised

By: Kriss Sjoblom
12:00 am
October 19, 2011

The state Employment Security Department released preliminary estimates of September Employment this morning. These estimates show that the state lost 18,400 jobs (seasonally adjusted) from August to September; 7,600 of the lost jobs were in the private sector, and 10,800 were in the government sector.

Preliminary job estimates are, on occasion, substantially revised when more complete data become available. For example, the preliminary estimates for January of this year, (which were issued on March 1), showed that Washington had added 11,600 jobs in the private sector from December 2010 to January 2011, with a net gain of 11,000 jobs overall. Subsequent revisions have reduced the estimates of January job gains to 4,400 in the private sector and 3,200 overall. I expect this will be another occasion with substantial revisions to the private sector estimates.


The numbers cited above come from the monthly survey of establishments. The parallel monthly survey of households, from which the state’s unemployment rate is estimated, presents a different picture. According to the household survey, the number of Washington residents with jobs increased by 16,100 (seasonally adjusted) from August to September, and the unemployment rate dropped from 9.3 percent to 9.1 percent.

It is not surprising that the report shows large losses in the government sector. Education accounts for all of the lost government jobs. The cuts in K-12 and higher education funding in the 2011-13 state budget should show up for the first time in this employment report. The Tacoma school strike should also reduce the number of government jobs counted in September.

Here is a link to the Employment Security Department press release, and here is a link to the Monthly Employment Report. Finally, below is a chart comparing Washington job losses during post World War II recessions.

10.19.11 pic
Calculated Risk has a similar chart for the nation as a whole.

Categories: Categories , Economy.