I have put together a rough “outlook” for the 2013–15 biennium based on the supplemental budget passed by the House on March 8. I also have refined the outlooks that I posted four days ago based the supplemental budgets passed on February 29 by the House and on March 3 by the Senate. These projections follow closely that prepared by the Office of Financial Management of Gov. Gregoire’s November supplemental proposal, with adjustments for the specifics of the legislative supplementals. The one deviation I have made from OFM’s assumptions is in regard to the medical assistance program. I assume that per-capita medical assistance costs will grow by 5 percent per year rather than the average 2 percent assumed by OFM.

Under the March 8 House supplemental, the state is projected to face a shortfall of more than $2.6 billion in the three NGFS+ accounts (the general fund–state account, the education legacy trust account and the Washington opportunity pathways account), which would be offset somewhat by $552 million in the budget stabilization account. This is about $250 million worse than the shortfall under the February 29 House supplemental. Under the March 3 Senate supplemental, the NGFS+ shortfall is only $7 million and total reserves are positive $545 million.

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[Error in beginning balance under House February 29 supplemental budget corrected on 3/13.]