The Office of Program Research, in an unofficial budget outlook, estimates that the unrestricted ending balance of funds subject to the outlook will be negative $3.403 billion in 2019–21 and negative $8.465 billion in 2021–23. Despite these dire projections, Gov. Inslee says he has no plans to call the Legislature into a special session.

Depending on how many budget areas are subject to spending cuts, we estimate that necessary cuts could be from 8.8 percent to 28.2 percent if the Legislature waits until the regular session to address the shortfall. Had the Legislature acted in June, the necessary reductions would have ranged from 2.9 percent to 9.4 percent. The same concept applies to tax increases: To reach a target level of collections, a tax rate would need to be higher if applied over a shorter period.

Gov. Inslee and legislative leaders appear poised to use all available one-time funding sources to patch together the current biennial budget without regard for the significant looming shortfalls in subsequent biennia. The Legislature should act sooner than later to enact a new budget that is sustainable within current resources and that balances over four years.

Read the report here.