Most of the good news in today's update to the state revenue forecast is old news

By: Kriss Sjoblom
12:00 am
September 14, 2015

The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council held its quarterly meeting today. The forecast of general fund–state (GF–S) revenue for the current biennium (2015–17) increased to $37,091.0 million from the $36,758.1 million that had been forecasted in May. However, the $332.9 million gain is more than accounted for by above-forecast collections reported in July, August and September ($165.9 million) and by actions taken by the Legislature as part of the budget enacted in June ($193.4 million). This is all old news at this point. The new news is a small reduction of $26.4 million to the forecast of GF–S collections over the remaining 22 months of the 2015–17 biennium.

The forecast of GF–S collections for 2013–15 was increased by $13.2 million, to $33,666.0 million. The forecast for 2017–19 was increased by $337.8 million to $40,537 million. Of the latter increase, $286.1 million was due to legislative actions.

Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees often roll-up three accounts; the general fund–state, the education legacy trust account and the Washington opportunity pathways account. We refer to this three-account roll-up as the NGFS+. For the NGFS+, the forecast of revenue for the 2013–15 biennium increased by $24.3 million to $34,304.7 million; the forecast for the 2015–17 biennium increased by $363.2 million to $37,814.3 million; and the forecast for the 2017–19 biennium increased by $364.5 million to $41,302.7 million.

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