A new Washington Health Benefit Exchange enrollment report shows that enrollment in qualified health plans (the private insurance plans offered through the Exchange under the Affordable Care Act) may have plateaued.

The headline from the Exchange is “1.5 million Washingtonians Get Covered,” but that is mostly people applying for or renewing Medicaid. Total enrollment in private plans (QHP) through Sept. 30, 2015 is 152,517. The chart below shows total QHP enrollments from each enrollment report since the Exchange opened in October 2013.

There’s clearly still quite a bit of variation from one report to the next, but enrollment does appear to have leveled off. The next open enrollment period is Nov. 1, 2015 through Jan. 31, 2016. Don’t expect a big enrollment bump: As Pam MacEwan, CEO of the Washington Health Benefit Exchange, acknowledges, “This past year is indicative of slower, incremental growth expected in the future as a result of the continued reduction in our state’s uninsured.” (As I’ve noted before, the Exchange’s original goal for 2015 was 213,000 QHP enrollees.)

Similarly, the Obama Administration is estimating that national enrollment will increase from 9.9 million to just 10 million in 2016. A few years ago, the Congressional Budget Office had forecast that 2016 enrollment would be 22 million. (Here’s Megan McArdle on what this means nationally.)

Some interesting data points from the enrollment report:

• Of the 152,517 QHP enrollees, 119,969 (79 percent) received tax credits that lowered their premiums.
• In 2015, 30,604 people lost their QHP coverage. Of these disenrollments, 56 percent were due to non-payment and 44 percent were voluntary.
• Of QHP enrollees, 23 percent is aged 18-34 (7 percent is 18-25). (If youth is a proxy for health, you want higher percentages of young people on the Exchange.)
• 1,447,294 enrolled in Medicaid through the Exchange. Unfortunately, this report does not distinguish between those who are newly eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (and are funded at a higher federal match rate) and those who were previously eligible.