The Employment Security Department reported today that the state added an unbelievably large 13,200 jobs in January. The models used to estimate jobs are subject to a significant amount of error, especially for the initial estimate. The magnitude for potential error is documented by the revisions made to the estimates for December employment and for 2011 as a whole that ESD issued in January. Here are the first 4 paragraphs from the ESD press release:

Washington’s employment surges in January

OLYMPIA – Washington’s employment picture brightened in January, as the unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted, estimated rate of 8.3 percent and the state enjoyed an estimated gain of 13,200 jobs, according to the state Employment Security Department.

Employment Security also announced that December’s previous estimate of 11,700 job losses has been reversed to a gain of 100 jobs, and the previously announced unemployment rate of 8.5 percent has been revised to 8.6 percent.

Earlier this week, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics completed its annual benchmarking effort, which uses employers’ wage reports and other data sources to firm up the previously estimated unemployment rates and job numbers for each month of 2011. That research shows Washington gained more jobs last year than previously estimated, and unemployment rates in the latter half of 2011 were slightly better than initially estimated.

For example, benchmarked data show that Washington gained about 53,500 jobs in 2011, compared to the 26,600 jobs previously reported.

…

The full Monthly Employment Report is available here.

Washington's economy continues to improve. However, one should not get overly excited (or discouraged) by initial error-prone reports on employment.