Blog

What will the Legislature do with the $4 billion in LEOFF 1?

The House and Senate have each passed different versions of HB 2034, the bill that would terminate the Law Enforcement Officers’ and Firefighters’ retirement system Plan 1 (LEOFF 1) and create a restated LEOFF defined benefit retirement fund. This would allow the state to extract expected surplus funds in the plan. The two versions differ […]

Bracket creep in Washington’s estate and income tax proposals

Typically, federal and state tax codes automatically adjust various provisions—like exclusion and deduction amounts—for inflation. This helps to prevent bracket creep. As the Tax Foundation defines it, bracket creep “occurs when inflation, rather than real increases in income, pushes people into higher income tax brackets or reduces the value they receive from credits and deductions.” […]

Proposed House striking amendment to income tax bill is supported by Gov. Ferguson, but there’s no fiscal note yet

The Senate passed the income tax bill (ESSB 6346) on Feb. 16. (I wrote about the bill as passed here.) As passed by the Senate, the income tax would increase revenues by $2.706 billion in 2027–29 and $7.537 billion in 2029–31. It would use some of those revenues for local government public defense ($189.4 million […]

House Finance version of estate tax bill would reinstate the exclusion amount glitch

Last year the Legislature increased estate tax rates and fixed a long-term problem with the inflation adjustment for the exclusion amount (ESSB 5813). This year, the Senate has passed ESB 6347, which would roll back the tax rate increases in ESSB 5813. Beginning with estates of people dying on or after July 1, 2026, the […]

New bills would temporarily prohibit the assumption of at least 4.5% revenue growth under the four-year balanced budget requirement (but there are apparent drafting errors)

Under the four-year balanced budget statute, the projected maintenance level of the budget cannot exceed available fiscal resources in the ensuing biennium (RCW 43.88.055). “Available fiscal resources” is defined as the greater of the official forecast of revenues to funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) or NGFO revenues increased by 4.5% each year. Thus, when […]

New brief: Comparing the Senate- and House-Passed 2026 Supplemental Operating Budgets

Despite a maintenance level budget shortfall, the operating budgets passed by the Senate and House would both increase net new policy spending. They would balance the budget in 2025–27 using one-time funds, and each proposal assumes that revenues from a new income tax will be collected beginning in 2029. Read the report here.

An estimate of the size of the current shortfall, and how the Senate and House would close it

Determining the size of a budget shortfall is more subjective than you might think. It involves numerous assumptions, and various parties don’t always agree on what those assumptions should be. On top of that, everyone has a different idea of how much new spending should be added. In a supplemental budget year, shortfalls occur when […]

Legislature keeps kicking the can down the road

The cause of the state’s operating budget shortfall is, ultimately, that in 2023–25, the Legislature chose to spend $4.8 billion more than the state collected in revenues. (All figures in this post are in terms of funds subject to the outlook, or NGFO.) The budget balanced thanks to the use of one-time funds. The budget […]

Notable provisos in the House operating budget and minimal committee amendments in the House and Senate

The Senate Ways & Means Committee and the House Appropriations Committee amended their chairs’ operating budget proposals yesterday. The amendments are very minor in terms of their fiscal impact—they are rounding errors in the overall outlook. Amendments adopted by Ways & Means would increase 2025–27 appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $983,000 […]

Policy changes in the House Chair’s operating budget proposal

As I wrote on Monday, the House Appropriations Committee Chair proposes increasing appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $2.074 billion compared to enacted 2025–27 appropriations. Of that, $1.734 billion is maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for enrollment and inflation) and $340.5 million is net new policy. (The House […]