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Washington’s revenues are not volatile, and the budget shortfall is the result of legislative choices

Senate Democrats released a video earlier this week to discuss some of the reasons Washington is facing a budget shortfall. It is not accurate. First, Ways & Means Committee Vice Chair for Finance Frame says, “Our state relies on sales taxes, which fluctuate with consumer spending, making revenue unpredictable.” This characterization of sales tax revenues […]

To close an estimated $8.7 billion maintenance level shortfall, Senate Democrats propose $17 billion in net new taxes

Today Senate Democrats released their revenue proposals for the 2025–27 operating budget. (The budget itself will be released on Monday.) They would impose a wealth tax (dubbed the financial intangibles tax) and a payroll expense tax, increase the property tax growth limit, and repeal several tax exemptions. They would also reduce the state sales tax […]

With revenue forecast, the maintenance level shortfall is now about $8.7 billion over four years

The Legislature will use the March revenue forecast to write the 2025–27 operating budget. As I wrote yesterday, the Legislature has $1.85 billion less to work with over the outlook period than it did when it enacted the current budget. With the new forecast, I estimate that the maintenance level shortfall (the deficit between current […]

The transportation revenue forecast has improved since November, but revenues are still lower than assumed in the enacted transportation budget

The March 2025 forecast of transportation revenues is up compared to the November 2024 forecast. However, the new forecast is still significantly lower than the February 2024 forecast (on which the enacted budget is based). Compared to November, the new forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium increased by $49.2 million, to $6.855 billion. The forecast […]

NGFO revenues are now forecasted to be $844 million lower than in the November forecast

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) now estimates that revenues from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) will be $844 million lower over the outlook period than anticipated in the November 2024 forecast. Compared to the November forecast, the forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium increased by $55 million, to $66.445 billion. The forecast […]

Congratulations, Kriss!

A bittersweet, and belated, announcement: Kriss Sjoblom, our research director and economist, retired at the end of last year. He had been with the Research Council for 30 years. During his time here, he was a member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors and served on the Commission on State Debt. He was also […]

December forecast of Climate Commitment Act revenues is $201.6 million lower than the June forecast (over five years)

The Department of Ecology estimates that carbon emission allowance auction proceeds will total $2.248 billion in 2023–25, $1.643 billion in 2025–27, and $1.248 billion in 2027–29. Compared to Ecology’s Nov. 2023 forecast (on which enacted appropriations from Climate Commitment Act accounts were based), the December 2024 forecast is $330.2 million lower for 2023–25 and $129.8 […]

Policy reductions total $2.753 billion for 2025–27 in Senate Republican proposal; they would be offset by $1.491 billion in policy increases

The Senate Republican 2025–27 budget proposal would increase appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $3.635 billion over enacted 2023–25 appropriations. That includes maintenance level increases (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for inflation and caseloads) and net policy level decreases of $1.263 billion. The net new policy proposals are comprised of […]

Senate Republican budget proposal would increase spending by 5.1% and not raise taxes

Today Senate Republicans proposed an operating budget for 2025–27 and a 2025 supplemental to the 2023–25 operating budget. It is unusual for the minority party to propose a full budget; the last time was in 2022 (in the House). This proposal provides another set of options for closing the projected budget shortfall; as we wrote […]

New brief: Legislators Can Close the Budget Shortfall Without Raising Taxes

There are myriad ways to solve the budget problem without increasing taxes. Solving the problem will require cutting the 2025–27 maintenance level by about $4.7 billion (6.1%). (Since 2021, the state has adopted $13.874 billion in net new policy spending.) Gov. Ferguson and former Gov. Inslee have proposed billions of dollars in savings ideas over […]