Blog

Unemployment Insurance Burden

This table compares the unemployment tax burden in Washington with that in other states.

Challenging Times for Refiners

These are challenging times in the oil refining industry, as an article on the front page of the business section of today’s New York Times documents (Chilly Climate for Oil Refiners). Five U.S. refineries have shut down in the past year. The recent closings signal the end of a period from roughly 2004 to 2008, […]

FIFO or LIFO

I have been optimistic that this would be a LIFO recession. Washington was one of the last states to go into recession. It has been my belief that Washington would be one of the first states out and that over the next several years Washington would out perform the rest the nation as a whole […]

Another Collections Shortfall

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (EFRC) issued its monthly update late this afternoon. The document is available here. These three bullets from the update summarize the key takeaways: While our economic forecasts have been accurate, our models appear to be overforecasting revenue. To be fair, these are unprecedented times, and continued weakness in consumer […]

Washington Life Sciences Economic Impact Study

We have just completed an economic impact study of Washington’s life sciences industry. The report is available here.

Arun Raha

On Wednesday I saw Arun Raha, Executive Director and chief economist for the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, speak to the University of Washington Economics Department’s Visiting Committee. The slides from the talk available in both color (best for viewing on line) and black and white (best for printing) on the ERFC website. Arun […]

September Economic and Revenue Update

Last Friday (September 11), the Forecast Council issued this month’s Economic and Revenue Update, reporting collection experience for the August 11 to September 10 period. This is the last key piece of information going into the next update to the state’s general fund revenue forecast. State forecasters believe that the national economy has hit bottom, […]

Another Chart on Saving

The previous post discussed the recent upturn in the personal saving rate and the prospects that it will head even higher as the economy emerges from recession. In light of the recent increase in the saving rate, the following chart, which plots personal consumption expenditures as a share of gross domestic product, may seem anomalous. […]

Three Charts on Saving

Consumer spending is unlikely to lead the economy out of the current recession. The first chart in this post shows the personal saving rate—the ratio of personal saving to disposable personal income—from the first quarter of 1952 to the second quarter of this year, as calculated by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis […]

Seattle's Lost Decade

An editorial in the current issue of the Puget Sound Business Journal promotes our recent Policy Brief, “Seattle’s Lost Decade”: A new report by the Washington Research Council should be required reading for policymakers in Seattle’s City Hall. The full editorial is available through this link to the PSBJ (subscription required).The brief itself is available […]