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Times Editorial From Rasmussen's WRC Dinner Remarks: "Cynical Nation"

The Seattle Times draws on Scott Rasmussen's speech at the Research Council dinner for this excellent editorial. "People don't trust government projections," Rasmussen said. "Eighty-one percent believe that whatever the government says, it will cost more." Who is to say the people are wrong? If they believe this, they learned to believe it. The great […]

Caseload Forecast Adds $277 Million to 2009-11 Costs

Yesterday (Friday the 13th), the state Caseload Forecast Council updated its forecasts for K-12 enrollments and for various human services caseloads. Here is a table that summarizes the differences between the new forecasts and the caseloads assumed in the adopted 2009¬11 budget. The key changes include: K–12. Enrollments are now expected to exceed the numbers […]

Another Collections Shortfall

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (EFRC) issued its monthly update late this afternoon. The document is available here. These three bullets from the update summarize the key takeaways: While our economic forecasts have been accurate, our models appear to be overforecasting revenue. To be fair, these are unprecedented times, and continued weakness in consumer […]

Governors Enlist Interest Groups in Effort to Boost Taxes

The Wall Street Journal today carries a story pegging of Delaware Gov. Jack Markell's efforts to get voters to understand the state's budget shortfall. It's a strategy many governors, including Gov. Gregoire, are using as they look ahead to years of structural deficits, exacerbated by steep and prolonged revenue declines. Does this sound familiar? "Elected […]

A Roundup of Recent I-1033 Stories and a Reminder

First, the reminder: If you haven’t done so yet, take a look at the Washington Research Council analysis of Initiative 1033. The initiative caps growth in state revenues, returning revenue above the limit to property taxpayers. The WRC report shows how this works in practice. As the election nears, the campaigns gets a little warmer. […]

September Economic and Revenue Update

Last Friday (September 11), the Forecast Council issued this month’s Economic and Revenue Update, reporting collection experience for the August 11 to September 10 period. This is the last key piece of information going into the next update to the state’s general fund revenue forecast. State forecasters believe that the national economy has hit bottom, […]