Blog

New Brief: I-1163: Once, Twice, Still Not a Priority

We have taken a look at Initiative 1163, and the resulting policy brief is here. I-1163 would essentially make the state implement training and background check requirements for long-term care workers (which were approved by voters in 2008) this biennium.  The program never had a dedicated source of funding, and the legislature has never implemented […]

Arkansas' Budget System and Prioritization

Arkansas, apparently, is one state that has managed to weather the recession fairly well.  Stateline has an article today about the state's budget process, which is quite interesting: Every two years lawmakers pass a list of appropriations, and agencies project what they will need to run their programs. Then those funding requests are divided into […]

New Brief: SJR 8206: A Prudent Savings Measure

In our new brief, we take a look at SJR 8206 — a constitutional amendment that will be on the ballot in November. The amendment would save any extraordinary revenue growth (growth that exceeds by one-third the average revenue growth over the prior five biennia) in the Budget Stabilization Account.  Years in which there is […]

Grappling with a $2 billion state budget shortfall

Yesterday’s official revenue forecast confirmed expectations that deteriorating economic conditions have plunged the state budget into a deep hole. The loss of $1.4 billion in anticipated revenue collections, combined with the need to build reserves, means lawmakers confront a problem approaching $2 billion. How they will handle is so far unclear. While it’s likely a […]

State Analysts and WRC Agree: I-1183 Generates Positive State/Local Revenues

We have posted a Policy Brief titled State Analysts and WRC Agree: I-1183 Generates Positive State/Local Revenues. Here is a link to the brief.

More on the Forecast: Balance Sheet

Here is a general fund-state balance sheet incorporating the new forecast. The projected GF-S ending balance for the 2011-13 biennium is negative $1.555 billion. Counting the $280 million expected ending balance for the budget stabilization account, total expected reserves are negative $1.275 billion. Deciding not to shoot the messenger, the members of the Economic and […]

September Revenue Forecast: Down $1.4 Billion

The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council is meeting right now. The baseline forecast for the general fund-state account is down $1.413 billion from the June forecast. An alternate baseline, which assumes slower growth in national GDP in 2013, is down $1.429 billion from the June forecast. Here is a link to the press release.

Revenue collections report offers a bleak preview of Thursday's forecast

The economic and revenue forecast council’s latest collections report is available here. Here’s the crux: Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the August 11 – September 10, 2011 collection period were $9.5 million (0.9%) below the June forecast. Cumulatively, collections are $40.2 million (1.2%) below the forecast. Even though revenues have so far been […]

New pension assumption will increase pressure on state budget

  As Brad Shannon reports in the Olympian, suggestions made by the state actuary for improving the solvency of the state pension system will result in a further squeeze on the state’s troubled budget. In a new report, actuary Matt Smith recommends that lawmakers lower rate-of-return expectations on pension investments to about 7.5 percent over […]

New Brief: The 2011-13 Budget and the Upcoming Revenue Forecast

As Kriss reported on Sunday, the September 15 revenue forecast probably won’t be pretty:  “[State economist Arun] Raha indicated that a major downward adjustment to the forecast of state revenue for the 2011-13 biennium is forthcoming.” In light of that, we have a new brief today that describes some of the policy changes made in […]