Kriss Sjoblom

Updated Rough Outlook for 2013-15

Here is an update to the rough “Outlook” for the 2013-15 biennium that I posted on March 10. The two largest changes from the previous version involve the treatment of the Senate’s suspension of contributions to the “Plan 1” pension plan (which had the effect of reducing the 2015 ending balance for the Senate budget […]

Preliminary Employment Estimates Show 4,200 Jobs Added in Washington in February, Estimate of January Gain Reduced

The state Employment Security Department today issued its Monthly Employment Report for February. The preliminary estimates are that the state added 4,200 nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) from January to February and that the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for the state stood at 8.2 percent in February (down from a revised 8.4 percent in January). Because […]

Initial Monthly Estimates of Washington Employment Are Subject to Error

The state’s Employment Security Department (ESD) releases monthly estimates of the number of nonfarm jobs in the state. (The schedule for this year’s releases is here.) These estimates are prepared in conjunction with the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics program (CES). By their nature, these survey-based estimates are subject to considerable […]

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Down

Unemployment insurance claims data are released every Thursday. This week’s report was a good one: Nationally, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims fell by 14,000 to 351,000, while the four-week moving average was unchanged at 355,750. The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) press release is here. Calculate Risk has charts here. The numbers for […]

February 11 – March 10 state revenue collections were $7.7 million less than forecast

The monthly collections report is out today. The headline number is not too bad: “Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the February 11 – March 10, 2012 collection period were $7.7 million … lower than the February forecast." However, the underlying detail is weaker than the headline: "Revenue Act collections for the current period came […]

Outlook for 2013-15 Under March 8 House Supplemental Budget

I have put together a rough “outlook” for the 2013–15 biennium based on the supplemental budget passed by the House on March 8. I also have refined the outlooks that I posted four days ago based the supplemental budgets passed on February 29 by the House and on March 3 by the Senate. These projections […]

Balance Sheet Comparison of Most Recent House-Passed Budget to Earlier House- and Senate-Passed Versions

Here is a balance sheet comparison of the budget passed by the House yesterday (March 8) to those passed by the House on February 29 and the Senate on March 3:

The Outlook for 2013-15 Under the House and Senate Supplemental Budgets

I have put together rough “outlooks” for the 2013–15 biennium based on the supplemental budgets passed by the House and the Senate. These projections follow closely that prepared by the Office of Financial Management of Gov. Gregoire’s November supplemental proposal, with adjustments for the specifics of the House and Senate budgets. The one deviation I […]

ESD Reports Washington Added 13,200 jobs In January: This Number Is Likely To Be Revised Downward

The Employment Security Department reported today that the state added an unbelievably large 13,200 jobs in January. The models used to estimate jobs are subject to a significant amount of error, especially for the initial estimate. The magnitude for potential error is documented by the revisions made to the estimates for December employment and for […]

Balance Sheet for the House Ways and Means Committee Supplemental Budget

Here is a balance sheet for House Ways and Means Committee passed supplemental budget: