Washington’s state and local spending increased dramatically coming out of the Great Recession as the state invested primarily in education to address the McCleary education funding lawsuit. With McCleary now in the rear-view mirror, there appears to be an enormous appetite among legislators for new spending on almost everything else. As the spending proposals begin to roll out with the governor’s budget, it is instructive to look at the state’s recent spending history.

From the pre-recession peak in 2008 through 2019, spending from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is budgeted to increase 43.9 percent. Washington’s state and local spending per capita has exceeded the national average in most years since 2000 and ranked 15th highest in 2016. From 2016 through 2021 (the end of the second biennium of the current four-year budget window), NGFO spending is projected to increase by 40.3 percent.

NGFO spending on public schools is budgeted to increase by 88.8 percent from 2008 to 2019 (60.5 percent when adjusted for inflation). Public schools spending has also grown as a share of the NGFO budget, from 40.0 percent in 2008 to 52.5 percent in 2019.

Legislators this session will consider the appropriate level of spending for 2019–21 as they write a new biennial budget. A look back at the large spending increases in recent years and the length of the current economic expansion should give policymakers pause and may suggest a cautious approach.

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