Yesterday’s official revenue forecast confirmed expectations that deteriorating economic conditions have plunged the state budget into a deep hole. The loss of $1.4 billion in anticipated revenue collections, combined with the need to build reserves, means lawmakers confront a problem approaching $2 billion. How they will handle is so far unclear. While it’s likely a special session will be called, no one expects them to rush back to Olympia soon.

The fundamentals haven’t changed. Under Initiative 1053, tax increases require a supermajority vote of the legislature or a vote of the people. The supermajority is most likely out of reach. But there is talk of submitting a revenue package to the voters next year, something they can do with a simple majority.

The timing is difficult. Getting the required 50 votes in the House and 25 in the Senate for new taxes in a lousy economy and an election year will take a while, if it’s possible at all. It’s unlikely that anything can be put together before late spring. And there’s no guarantee that the voters are any more enthusiastic about taxes than they were last year, when they rejected two tax measures and passed I-1053.

So, while some contend further cuts are not an option, there will inevitably be additional cuts, even if lawmakers choose to pursue a new revenue strategy.

The Seattle Times reports the governor thinks a special session is necessary to avoid unacceptable across the board cuts.

The governor said she’d want to wait to hold a special session until after the next revenue forecast in November, should the numbers get worse.

That may give budget writers time to draft a plan that legislators can adopt swiftly, although the options are bleak. As the Times says,

Most of the budget is difficult to cut because of federal strings attached to programs, and state constitutional protection for the bulk of K-12 spending.

In our Thrive Washington series, we’ve identified good recommendations for putting the state on a more sustainable budget path. We’ll have more on this later.