At its quarterly meeting today, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecast of state revenues.

Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees typically roll-up three accounts; the general fund–state, the education legacy trust account and the Washington opportunity pathways account. EFRC refers to this three-account roll-up as the near general fund state; budgeteers refer to the roll-up as “funds subject to the outlook” (NGFO). Under the four-year balanced budget requirement, a positive ending balance is required for both the current and the following bienniums.

For the NGFO, the current (preliminary) estimate of revenue for the recently completed 2017–19 biennium is $46,085.6 million; this is $26.6 million greater than had been forecasted in June, when the ERFC last met. The forecast for the 2019–21 biennium increased by $447.0 million to $51,434.6. Finally, the forecast for the 2021–23 biennium decreased by $63.4 million, to $54,972.6 million. From 2017–19 to 2019–21, the forecasted NGFO growth rate is 11.6 percent; from 2019–21 to 2021–23, the forecasted growth rate is 6.9 percent.

The ERFC’s next update to the revenue forecast is scheduled for November 20th.

The ERFC press release is here; slides from the meeting are here.