The state Employment Security Department (ESD) issued its employment report for October yesterday. It is estimated that  seasonally adjusted employment in Washington fell by 8,100 from September to October. This followed an estimated 1,400 decline from August to September. The estimated seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the state was 6.9 percent in September and 7.0 percent in October.

It has been 68 months since employment in the state reached its all-time high (February 2008) and 44 months since the Great Recession low (February 2010). ESD’s current estimate is that the state needs add 39,200 more jobs to regain the pre-recession peak.

I believe that the employment estimate for October will eventually be revised upward. As I have said in earlier posts, initial employment estimates can be subject to considerable error (see for example). If the September and October job loss estimates are correct, the 9,500 jobs lost from would be the largest two-month loss since November and December of 2009. I see few signs that the state economy is so weak. During August, September and October state revenue collections came in over forecast (see here and here). Nationally, the economy is estimated to have added 163,000 jobs in September and 204,000 in October. In Washington state, initial claims for unemployment insurance are remain near post recession lows.

The monthly employment report for Washington is available here. The national employment situation report for October is available here.