This morning the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued its monthly Economic and Revenue Update. Here are the key bullets on revenue from the summary:

• Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the May 11 – June 10, 2014 collection period were $60.5 million (3.4%) higher than the February forecast.
• Cumulatively, collections are now $122.2 million (2.4%) higher than forecasted.
• Since the February forecast, there have been $47.2 million in one-time assessment payments that were not included in the forecast. Without these payments, cumulative collections would have been $75.0 million (1.5%) higher than forecasted.
• While cumulative property tax collections are $32.0 million higher than forecasted, most of the variance is likely due to the early receipt of payments that had been expected to arrive in June. As such, expected June receipts will be lowered by a similar amount.

The ERFC will revise its forecast of state revenues on June 17. Here is my summary of the situation:

There have been four monthly collections reports since the most recent update to the state revenue forecast. For the four months combined, revenues have exceeded forecast by $122.2 million. That amount, however, is thought to include $32.0 million in property taxes that were received a month earlier than expected. Subtracting that off reduces the good news on revenue to $90.2 million. Of this amount, $47.2 million is due to one-time assessment payments that were not anticipated in the forecast. Subtracting this amount from the $90.2 million leaves $43.0 million as the amount by which the ERFC’s model has under forecasted  collections for the four months.

I look for the ERFC to raise the forecast of 2013-15 revenues by $95 million – $140 million when it meets on the 17th. This would roll into the forecast the last four months’ good news and include a small upward adjustment to future collections to account for the fact that the model has been under forecasting.