This afternoon the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council reduced the forecast of general fund–state revenues for current 2009–11 biennium by $79.8 million to $28.047 billion and the forecast for the 2011–13 biennium by $698.4 million to $31.907 billion. These reductions were smaller than many had feared.

As require by law, the baseline forecasts were bracketed by optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Reflecting increased uncertainty due to the developments in the middle east and in Japan, the probability attached to the pessimistic scenario increased to 20 percent from the 15 percent assigned in November. The probability of the optimistic scenario was unchanged at 10 percent.

Following the Forecast Council meeting, Office of Financial Management Director Marty Brown estimated the remaining gap in the 2009–11 general fund–state budget to be $201 million and the gap in the 2011–13 budget to be to be $5.1 billion.

With the March update to the general fund state revenue forecasts, legislators should accelerate work on writing the 2011–13 budget. Counting today, 39 days remain in the 105-day regular session.

Here is a link to the ERFC press release.