Yesterday afternoon the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued its monthly Economic and Revenue Update. It was spectacular month for state revenue collections. State economists, however, caution against reading too much into this one report. Here are the key bullets on revenue from the summary:

• Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the July 11 – August 10, 2015 collection period came in $107.5 million (8.0%) above the June forecast.
• During the collection period, there were $15.1 million in large audit payments that were not included in the forecast. Without these payments, collections would have been $92.5 million (6.9%) higher than forecasted.
• Most of this months’ surplus was from Revenue Act taxes, which came in $80.3 million (6.8%) higher than forecasted. The unexpectedly high level of those taxes is likely the result of normal month-to-month fluctuations rather than an indication of a potential uptick in underlying economic activity.
• Cumulatively, collections are now $125 million (2.7%) higher than forecasted. Adjusted for cumulative large payments and refunds not included in the forecast, collections would have been $117.1 million (2.5%) higher than forecasted.

Here is a chart snipped from the Update showing monthly seasonally-adjusted Revenue Act collections since 2004.

Real estate excise tax collections continue to be strong.

Most of this month’s surplus [in No-Revenue Act Collections] once again came from real estate excise tax (REET) collections, which came in $18.9 million (28.0%) higher than forecasted. Large sales of commercial property were higher than expected, with sales of property valued at $10 million or more totaling $896 million. Residential sales were also stronger than forecasted. Seasonally adjusted activity increased (see figure). Cumulatively, collections are $46.6 million (23.9%) above the forecast.

The sale of the state’s tallest building, the 76 story Columbia Center, closed last Friday at a reported price of $711 million. Next month’s collections report should include $9 million in REET from this transaction.