At its quarterly meeting today, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecasts of state revenues. These new forecasts increase the amount available over the current and next bienniums by a total of $667.3 million.

Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees typically roll up four accounts: the general fund–state, the education legacy trust account, the Washington opportunity pathways account and the workforce education investment account. Budgeteers refer to this roll-up as “funds subject to the outlook” (NGFO). Under the four-year balanced budget requirement, positive ending balances are required for both the current and the following bienniums for the NGFO overall.

For the NGFO, the forecast for the 2021–23 biennium increased by $341 million to $64,487 million; $6 million of this increase was due to legislation enacted in the recent legislative session, while $252 million was due to an increase in the forecast for the new capital gains tax, which was collected for the first time this April. The forecast for the 2023–25 biennium increased by $327 million to $66,028 million; $39 million of this increase was due to recent legislation, while $105 million was due to an increase in the forecast for the capital gains tax. The forecast for the 2025–2027 biennium increased by $147 million to $70,489 million: $38 million of this increase was due to recent legislation, while $17 million was due to an increase in the forecast for the capital gains tax.

From 2019–21 to 2021–23, the forecasted NGFO growth rate is 21.4%. From 2021–23 to 2023–2025, the forecasted NGFO growth rate is 2.4%. From 2023–2025 to 2025–27, the forecasted NGFO growth rate is 6.8%.

As always, the ERFC also adopted optimistic and pessimistic alternative revenue forecasts for the general fund–state (which produces 95% of total NGFO revenue). Under the optimistic scenario, revenue exceeds the baseline forecast by $140 million in 2021–23 and by $3,716 million during 2023–25. Under the pessimistic scenario, revenue falls short of the baseline forecast by $159 million during 2021–23 and by $4,520 million during 2023–25. The ERFC assigns a 25 percent probability to the optimistic scenario and a 25 percent probability to the pessimistic scenario.

The handout from the meeting is here; TVW video of the meeting is here.