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Caseload forecast shows that utilization of some state services will increase, but there’s still no K–12 enrollment bounce-back

The Caseload Forecast Council (CFC) presented the June caseload forecast today. (The charts in this post are from the forecast.) The new forecast for common schools enrollment is essentially the same as the February forecast, with two additional years. Notably, school enrollment is still not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels. SY 2021–22 appears to […]

New data on how Washington’s governments are using federal relief funds

Last month, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released the first quarterly report on the use of Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (SLFRF) through Dec. 2021. Only entities that received more than $10 million or have population over 250,000 are required to report quarterly. (In Washington, that includes the state, 21 counties, and […]

239 Washington school districts have lost enrollment since SY 2019–20, but nearly all their shortfalls are covered by enrollment stabilization funds and federal relief

Unusually, the cost of continuing current state services dropped substantially for the 2021 supplemental to the 2019–21 operating budget and the 2022 supplemental to the 2021–23 operating budget. Those cost reductions were led by enrollment declines in Washington’s public schools. Further, the state’s most recent caseload forecast does not expect enrollment to bounce back to […]

May report on state tax collections: another blowout

The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued last Friday. This report includes payments from monthly, quarterly and annual filers. In the case of monthly filers, the report covers payments received between April 11 and May 10 for the sales tax, the use tax, […]

The Legislature restored Washington’s reserves, just not to the BSA

According to Pew, “states had collectively amassed their largest fiscal cushion on record by the start of the current budget year.” Washington’s rainy day fund balance stands out poorly in Pew’s analysis. To compare the reserve levels of the states, Pew calculates the days’ worth of general fund spending that is held in reserves for […]

General fund spending is outpacing revenues in Seattle, even as revenues have increased considerably

On Wednesday, the Finance and Housing Committee of the Seattle City Council discussed general fund financial planning. Last month, the committee received the full general fund (GF) revenue forecast. Revenues are expected to be up compared to the forecast on which the 2022 adopted budget was based. However, this week city staff told the committee, […]

Including federal relief, state spending increased by 27.1% in 2019–21 and 28.7% in 2021–23

The increase in appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) in the 2022 supplemental operating budget is historically large. But that doesn’t include the influx of federal relief funds related to the pandemic. On top of the $64.125 billion in NGFO appropriations for 2021–23, federal relief appropriations for 2021–23 came to $8.931 billion in […]

Credit rating agencies accept the Washington rescue plan transition account as part of the state’s reserves

Earlier this week, the state treasurer announced that the credit rating agencies have affirmed Washington’s strong (Aaa/AA+/AA+) credit ratings. All three praised Washington’s budget reserves and fiscal management practices. In our policy brief on the enacted 2022 supplemental budget, we noted that the Legislature substantially increased reserves. However, most of those savings are held in […]

New brief: Historically Large Supplemental Budget Also Sets Aside Significant (But Unprotected) Reserves

With the 2022 supplemental operating budget, 2021–23 appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) are 24.3% higher than 2019–21. That is the largest biennial increase going back at least to the early 1990s. (The average biennial spending growth was 9.1% from 1993–95 through 2019–21.) Further, this is the first time a mid-biennium supplemental budget […]

Twenty-four towns in Washington declined general federal relief money

Crosscut is running a nice series on the federal COVID relief money in Washington. An item from last month was about how six Washington cities did not claim their shares of the coronavirus state and local fiscal recovery fund (SLFRF). Some of these small towns said they refused the money because they had not racked […]