Blog

City of Seattle’s November revenue forecast shows weakened real estate excise tax expectations; year-over-year regular general fund revenues are about flat

The City of Seattle’s Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts (OERF) presented its November revenue forecast on Wednesday. General fund revenues over the 2022 through 2024 period are now estimated to be down by a net of $9.4 million compared to the revenues anticipated in Mayor Harrell’s proposed 2023–24 budget. General fund revenues over that […]

A new forensic hospital may crowd out other 2023–25 capital budget spending

Appropriations from all funds in the 2021–23 capital budget (as amended by the 2022 supplemental) are 54.7% higher than in 2019–21. That’s the largest increase in capital budget spending going back to at least the mid-1990s. Bonds make up a significant percentage of capital budget resources; thus, the capital budget is constrained by the constitutional […]

Managing budget expectations

Last week, David Schumacher, the director of the Office of Financial Management (OFM), gave the Washington State Senior Citizens Foundation a preview of the upcoming budget cycle. He attempted to tamp down expectations of another big-spending year. This welcome reminder comes after agencies have submitted substantial operating budget requests for 2023–25 (my overview is here; […]

Interest rates move higher

The quarterly forecast of state tax revenue prepared by the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) is based upon an economic forecast also prepared by ERFC. In my September 21 post on the update to the revenue forecast, I observed that materials released earlier that day by the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee […]

Compensation increases drive the community and technical college system’s budget request

The community and technical college system (CTCS) has requested a 2023–25 budget that would increase its general fund–state (GFS) spending by $622.9 million (39.5%). Compensation items account for 50.8% of the maintenance and policy level changes in the request. First, the request estimates that funding the Initiative 732 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for the biennium would […]

K–12 budget request includes major staff compensation increases, elimination of the special education funding cap

For 2023–25, the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) is asking for a $6.565 billion increase to its general fund–state (GFS) budget. This would be an increase of 25.3% over 2021–23. (Adjusted for inflation, the increase would be 18.7%. That’s on par with spending increases made in response to the McCleary decision on school […]

October report on state tax collections: revenues for the month exceeded forecast by $126 million

On Friday the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) issued its monthly report on general fund revenue collections. This report covers payments received between September 11 and October 10 for the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively […]

Collective bargaining agreements with state and non-state employees would increase general fund–state spending by $2.893 billion over four years

The state negotiates collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) with general government employees, community college employees, certain law enforcement employees, and ferry employees. It also negotiates CBAs with certain non-state employees, and it negotiates with K–12 school employees over health care benefits. At a work session of the Joint Committee on Employment Relations last week, the Office […]

For 2023–25, the Department of Commerce asks to nearly double the substantial GFS budget step-up it received this biennium

The Department of Commerce, like the Department of Health, received extraordinary amounts of federal relief over the past few biennia related to the pandemic. For example, Commerce is the state agency responsible for distributing pandemic rental and business assistance. General fund–state (GFS) appropriations for Commerce in 2021–23 increased by 249.3% over 2019–21. Now, Commerce is […]

Department of Health asks for a 325.5% increase to its general fund–state budget

Given the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of Health (DOH) has been the recipient of an unusually large amount of federal funds in 2019–21 and 2021–23. (In the chart below, federal funds are included as part of “all funds.”) Meanwhile, general fund–state (GFS) spending for DOH increased by 23.1% in 2019–21 and 35.7% in 2021–23. The […]