New brief: Anatomy of the Projected State Budget Shortfall
We estimate that Washington is facing a $5.1 billion budget shortfall for 2025–27. However, this is not a revenue shortfall. Biennial revenues have not declined. Instead, spending growth has outpaced revenue growth. Indeed, legislators have regularly appropriated more than they expect to collect from forecasted revenues—especially in 2023–25. Enacted appropriations for 2023–25 exceed revenues expected […]
October 21 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: Washington Faces an Estimated $5.1 Billion Shortfall
The cost of maintaining current services in the upcoming 2025–27 operating budget is expected to be higher than currently-forecasted revenues for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO). Including the September revenue forecast, a preliminary estimate of the maintenance level (the cost of continuing current services, adjusted for enrollment and inflation) for the biennium, and the […]
October 08 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: I-2117: Repealing the Climate Commitment Act
Initiative 2117 would repeal the Climate Commitment Act (CCA). The CCA was enacted in 2021 with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the state to 5% of 1990 levels by 2050. The average price of carbon emission allowances at 2023 auctions was $54.74, more than twice the $22.78 anticipated in the 2021 fiscal […]
September 26 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: I-2109: Repealing the State Capital Gains Tax
Initiative 2109 would repeal the state capital gains tax statute. The Office of Financial Management estimates that repealing the capital gains tax would reduce state revenues by $424 million in FY 2025, by $820 million in the 2025–27 biennium, and by $919 million in the 2027–29 biennium. The reductions would only affect the education legacy […]
September 19 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: I-2124: Making the State’s Long-Term Care Program Optional
If approved by voters, Initiative 2124 would make the long-term services and supports trust (LTSST) program optional for all workers. The Office of Financial Management believes that revenues to the LTSST account would decrease as workers choose to opt out of the program, but it does not estimate how many opt outs there would be. […]
July 09 , 2024 - WRC
New report: Where Does All the Money Go: Spending Carbon Emission Allowance Auction Proceeds in the Shadow of I-2117
Washington has collected $2.149 billion to date from carbon emission allowance auctions. That’s $1.484 billion more than was expected when the Climate Commitment Act (CCA) was enacted in 2021, as the actual auction prices were higher than anticipated. The windfall, combined with the possibility that the CCA will be repealed in November if voters approve […]
May 03 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: The Importance of Constitutionally Protected Reserves: The Case of the WRPTA
In 2021, the Legislature withdrew $1.820 billion from the state’s restricted budget stabilization account (BSA) even though revenues had not declined. Most of the funds went to the unrestricted Washington rescue plan transition account (WRPTA), where they were held until the WRPTA was spent down in 2023–25. Total reserves are expected to decline by more […]
March 20 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: The Supplemental Operating Budget Increases Spending 3.1% and Drains the Shadow Reserve Account
The Legislature has passed a supplemental operating budget that would increase 2023–25 appropriations from funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) by $2.143 billion (3.1%). Including the supplemental, revised 2023–25 appropriations are 15.8% higher than actual 2021–23 spending. (The long-term average biennial growth is 9.8%.) Since the biennial budget was adopted last year, the NGFO revenue […]
February 29 , 2024 - WRC
New brief: Comparing the Senate- and House-Passed Supplemental Operating Budgets
The Senate and House have each passed supplemental operating budgets that would increase spending on new policies without increasing taxes. The House would increase 2023–25 appropriations by $354.9 million more than the Senate and leave less in reserves. Read the report here.
November 06 , 2023 - WRC
New report: The Transportation Budget, Transportation Revenues, and Long-Term Funding Challenges
Washington enacted a $17 billion, 16-year transportation revenue package last year, and this year the Legislature adopted a $13.616 billion transportation budget for 2023–25. Adjusted for inflation, 2023–25 appropriations are 18.8% higher than appropriations in 2021–23. Transportation budgets are mainly funded by state sources. State funds include forecasted revenues from transportation-related sources and money raised […]