Kriss Sjoblom

Update on personal income, consumer spending and saving rates following the COVID-19 recession

Here are updates of four charts I have posted monthly regarding national income and consumer spending during the COVID-19 recession, including new numbers for March and revisions to numbers for prior months. Personal Income in March was 0.5% greater than in February and 11.6% less than the peak reached in March 2021, which was boosted […]

April report on state tax collections

The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued this morning. For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received […]

Tax Structure Work Group advances five reform concepts

On March 30 the Tax Structure Work Group voted to move forward five tax reform concepts for elaboration and analysis. To my surprise, a personal income tax was not one of the concepts that moved forward. A 2017-19 budget proviso (see section 101) initially established the Tax Structure Workgroup (TSWG) within the state House of […]

Update on personal income, consumer spending and saving rates during the COVID-19 recession

Here are updates of three charts I have posted monthly regarding national income and consumer spending during the COVID-19 recession, including new numbers for February and revisions to numbers for prior months. I also include a new chart on Medicaid spending, which has grown significantly over the last two years. Personal Income in February was […]

According to the Census Bureau, King County lost population from 2020 to 2021

Census posted this map on Wednesday evening: Thursday morning update. Here are some numbers: The Census Bureau estimates that King County’s population decreased by 0.9% (down 20,266) from July 1, 2020, to July 2, 2021. The other two counties with estimated losses are Kitsap (-0.5%, -1,346) and Yakima (-0.2%, -498). San Juan County (+4.1%, +793) […]

Moody’s: Extended Russia-Ukraine war would hurt Washington

From Bloomberg: An extended conflict between Russia and Ukraine would hit the U.S. economy broadly, with all 50 states affected by the fallout, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. … Washington and South Carolina, the two states that export the most proportionally to Russia and Ukraine, would be hurt. Shipments affected likely would include […]

March report on state tax collections

The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued yesterday. For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between […]

Update on personal income, consumer spending and saving rates during the COVID-19 recession

Here are updates of charts I have posted monthly regarding national income and consumer spending during the COVID-19 recession, including new numbers for January and revisions to numbers for prior months. Personal Income in January was a slight 0.04% greater than in December and 12.8% less than the peak reached in March, which was boosted […]

Heed the pessimistic forecast

The economic and revenue forecast council (ERFC) is required to prepare three separate forecasts of state revenues: a baseline forecast, a pessimistic forecast and an optimistic forecast. The pessimistic and optimistic forecasts help to quantify the ERFC’s uncertainty concerning the baseline. The ERFC further quantifies this uncertainty by assigning probabilities to the three forecasts. The […]

Forecast of state revenues increased

At its quarterly meeting today, the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) updated its forecasts of state revenues. These new forecasts, which add nearly $2.8 billion to the amount available over the current and next bienniums. Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees typically roll up four accounts: the general fund–state, the education legacy trust […]