The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (EFRC) issued its monthly update late this afternoon. The document is available here. These three bullets from the update summarize the key takeaways:
- While our economic forecasts have been accurate, our models appear to be overforecasting revenue. To be fair, these are unprecedented times, and continued weakness in consumer spending is creating a “revenue-less recovery.”
- Major General Fund-State revenues for the October 11 – November 10, 2009 collection period were $65.2 million (5.7%) lower than our September forecast. There were two large unexpected refunds totaling $7.2 million during this period. Excluding the refunds, the variance was -$58.0 million (-5.1%).
- Cumulatively, revenues from the September 11, November 10, 2009 period are $97.4 million (4.7%) below the September forecast. Large one-time refunds accounted for $20.2 million of the negative variance. Excluding refunds, the total variance is -$77.2 million (-3.7%).
The EFRC will update its forecast of general fund revenue for the 2009 - 11 biennium on November 19. Given the recent collection shortfalls, a reduction in the forecast is likely.